SVM recursive feature elimination analyses of structural brain MRI predicts near-term relapses in patients with clinically isolated syndromes suggestive of multiple sclerosis

Esclerosi múltiple; Classificació d'aprenentatge automàtic; Selecció de funcionsEsclerosis múltiple; Clasificación de aprendizaje automático; Selección de característicasMultiple sclerosis; Machine learning classification; Feature selectionMachine learning classification is an attractive approach to automatically differentiate patients from healthy subjects, and to predict future disease outcomes. A clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is often the first presentation of multiple sclerosis (MS), but it is difficult at onset to predict who will have a second relapse and hence convert to clinically definite MS. In this study, we thus aimed to distinguish CIS converters from non-converters at onset of a CIS, using recursive feature elimination and weight averaging with support vector machines. We also sought to assess the influence of cohort size and cross-validation methods on the accuracy estimate of the classification. We retrospectively collected 400 patients with CIS from six European MAGNIMS MS centres. Patients underwent brain MRI at onset of a CIS according to local standard-of-care protocols. The diagnosis of clinically definite MS at one-year follow-up was the standard against which the accuracy of the model was tested. For each patient, we derived MRI-based features, such as grey matter probability, white matter lesion load, cortical thickness, and volume of specific cortical and white matter regions. Features with little contribution to the classification model were removed iteratively through an interleaved sample bootstrapping and feature averaging approach. Classification of CIS outcome at one-year follow-up was performed with 2-fold, 5-fold, 10-fold and leave-one-out cross-validation for each centre cohort independently and in all patients together. The estimated classification accuracy across centres ranged from 64.9% to 88.1% using 2-fold cross-validation and from 73% to 92.9% using leave-one-out cross-validation. The classification accuracy estimate was higher in single-centre, smaller data sets than in combinations of data sets, being the lowest when all patients were merged together. Regional MRI features such as WM lesions, grey matter probability in the thalamus and the precuneus or cortical thickness in the cuneus and inferior temporal gyrus predicted the occurrence of a second relapse in patients at onset of a CIS using support vector machines. The increased accuracy estimate of the classification achieved with smaller and single-centre samples may indicate a model bias (overfitting) when data points were limited, but also more homogeneous. We provide an overview of classifier performance from a range of cross-validation schemes to give insight into the variability across schemes. The proposed recursive feature elimination approach with weight averaging can be used both in single- and multi-centre data sets in order to bridge the gap between group-level comparisons and making predictions for individual patients.This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon2020 Research and Innovation Program EuroPOND under grant agreement number 666992, and it was supported by the National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre. We thank all participating partners of the MAGNIMS study group for sharing their data with us

Localized energy for wave equations with degenerate trapping

Localized energy estimates have become a fundamental tool when studying wave equations in the presence of asymptotically at background geometry. Trapped rays necessitate a loss when compared to the estimate on Minkowski space. A loss of regularity is a common way to incorporate such. When trapping is sufficiently weak, a logarithmic loss of regularity suffices. Here, by studying a warped product manifold introduced by Christianson and Wunsch, we encounter the first explicit example of a situation where an estimate with an algebraic loss of regularity exists and this loss is sharp. Due to the global-in-time nature of the estimate for the wave equation, the situation is more complicated than for the Schr\"{o}dinger equation. An initial estimate with sub-optimal loss is first obtained, where extra care is required due to the low frequency contributions. An improved estimate is then established using energy functionals that are inspired by WKB analysis. Finally, it is shown that the loss cannot be improved by any power by saturating the estimate with a quasimode.Comment: 18 page

Eigenvector centrality dynamics are related to Alzheimer’s disease pathological changes in non-demented individuals

Amyloid-β accumulation starts in highly connected brain regions and is associated with functional connectivity alterations in the early stages of Alzheimer's disease. This regional vulnerability is related to the high neuronal activity and strong fluctuations typical of these regions. Recently, dynamic functional connectivity was introduced to investigate changes in functional network organization over time. High dynamic functional connectivity variations indicate increased regional flexibility to participate in multiple subnetworks, promoting functional integration. Currently, only a limited number of studies have explored the temporal dynamics of functional connectivity in the pre-dementia stages of Alzheimer's disease. We study the associations between abnormal cerebrospinal fluid amyloid and both static and dynamic properties of functional hubs, using eigenvector centrality, and their relationship with cognitive performance, in 701 non-demented participants from the European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia cohort. Voxel-wise eigenvector centrality was computed for the whole functional magnetic resonance imaging time series (static), and within a sliding window (dynamic). Differences in static eigenvector centrality between amyloid positive (A+) and negative (A-) participants and amyloid-tau groups were found in a general linear model. Dynamic eigenvector centrality standard deviation and range were compared between groups within clusters of significant static eigenvector centrality differences, and within 10 canonical resting-state networks. The effect of the interaction between amyloid status and cognitive performance on dynamic eigenvector centrality variability was also evaluated with linear models. Models were corrected for age, sex, and education level. Lower static centrality was found in A+ participants in posterior brain areas including a parietal and an occipital cluster; higher static centrality was found in a medio-frontal cluster. Lower eigenvector centrality variability (standard deviation) occurred in A+ participants in the frontal cluster. The default mode network and the dorsal visual networks of A+ participants had lower dynamic eigenvector centrality variability. Centrality variability in the default mode network and dorsal visual networks were associated with cognitive performance in the A- and A+ groups, with lower variability being observed in A+ participants with good cognitive scores. Our results support the role and timing of eigenvector centrality alterations in very early stages of Alzheimer's disease and show that centrality variability over time adds relevant information on the dynamic patterns that cause static eigenvector centrality alterations. We propose that dynamic eigenvector centrality is an early biomarker of the interplay between early Alzheimer's disease pathology and cognitive decline

Spatial-Temporal Patterns of Amyloid-β Accumulation: A Subtype and Stage Inference Model Analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Currently, amyloid-β (Aβ) staging models assume a single spatial-temporal progression of amyloid accumulation. We assessed evidence for Aβ accumulation subtypes by applying the data-driven Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) model to amyloid-PET data. METHODS: Amyloid-PET data of 3010 subjects were pooled from 6 cohorts (ALFA+, EMIF-AD, ABIDE, OASIS, and ADNI). Standardized uptake value ratios (SUVr) were calculated for 17 regions. We applied the SuStaIn algorithm to identify consistent subtypes in the pooled dataset based on the cross-validation information criterion (CVIC) and the most probable subtype/stage classification per scan. The effect of demographics and risk factors on subtype assignment was assessed using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Participants were mostly cognitively unimpaired (N=1890, 62.8%), had a mean age of 68.72 (SD=9.1), 42.1% was APOE-ε4 carrier, and 51.8% was female. While a one-subtype model recovered the traditional amyloid accumulation trajectory, SuStaIn identified an optimal of three subtypes, referred to as Frontal, Parietal, and Occipital based on the first regions to show abnormality. Of the 788 (26.2%) with strong subtype assignment (>50% probability), the majority was assigned to Frontal (N=415, 52.5%), followed by Parietal (N=199, 25.3%), and Occipital subtypes (N=175, 22.2%). Significant differences across subtypes included distinct proportions of APOE-ε4 carriers (Frontal:61.8%, Parietal:57.1%, Occipital:49.4%), subjects with dementia (Frontal:19.7%, Parietal:19.1%, Occipital:31.0%) and lower age for the Parietal subtype (Frontal/Occipital:72.1y, Parietal:69.3y). Higher amyloid (Centiloid) and CSF p-tau burden was observed for the Frontal subtype, while Parietal and Occipital did not differ. At follow-up, most subjects (81.1%) maintained baseline subtype assignment and 25.6% progressed to a later stage. DISCUSSION: While a one-trajectory model recovers the established pattern of amyloid accumulation, SuStaIn determined that three subtypes were optimal, showing distinct associations to AD risk factors. Nonetheless, further analyses to determine clinical utility is warranted

Spatial-Temporal Patterns of Amyloid-β Accumulation: A Subtype and Stage Inference Model Analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Currently, amyloid-β (Aβ) staging models assume a single spatial-temporal progression of amyloid accumulation. We assessed evidence for Aβ accumulation subtypes by applying the data-driven Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) model to amyloid-PET data. METHODS: Amyloid-PET data of 3010 subjects were pooled from 6 cohorts (ALFA+, EMIF-AD, ABIDE, OASIS, and ADNI). Standardized uptake value ratios (SUVr) were calculated for 17 regions. We applied the SuStaIn algorithm to identify consistent subtypes in the pooled dataset based on the cross-validation information criterion (CVIC) and the most probable subtype/stage classification per scan. The effect of demographics and risk factors on subtype assignment was assessed using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Participants were mostly cognitively unimpaired (N=1890, 62.8%), had a mean age of 68.72 (SD=9.1), 42.1% was APOE-ε4 carrier, and 51.8% was female. While a one-subtype model recovered the traditional amyloid accumulation trajectory, SuStaIn identified an optimal of three subtypes, referred to as Frontal, Parietal, and Occipital based on the first regions to show abnormality. Of the 788 (26.2%) with strong subtype assignment (>50% probability), the majority was assigned to Frontal (N=415, 52.5%), followed by Parietal (N=199, 25.3%), and Occipital subtypes (N=175, 22.2%). Significant differences across subtypes included distinct proportions of APOE-ε4 carriers (Frontal:61.8%, Parietal:57.1%, Occipital:49.4%), subjects with dementia (Frontal:19.7%, Parietal:19.1%, Occipital:31.0%) and lower age for the Parietal subtype (Frontal/Occipital:72.1y, Parietal:69.3y). Higher amyloid (Centiloid) and CSF p-tau burden was observed for the Frontal subtype, while Parietal and Occipital did not differ. At follow-up, most subjects (81.1%) maintained baseline subtype assignment and 25.6% progressed to a later stage. DISCUSSION: While a one-trajectory model recovers the established pattern of amyloid accumulation, SuStaIn determined that three subtypes were optimal, showing distinct associations to AD risk factors. Nonetheless, further analyses to determine clinical utility is warranted

Multi-study validation of data-driven disease progression models to characterize evolution of biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease

Understanding the sequence of biological and clinical events along the course of Alzheimer's disease provides insights into dementia pathophysiology and can help participant selection in clinical trials. Our objective is to train two data-driven computational models for sequencing these events, the Event Based Model (EBM) and discriminative-EBM (DEBM), on the basis of well-characterized research data, then validate the trained models on subjects from clinical cohorts characterized by less-structured data-acquisition protocols. Seven independent data cohorts were considered totalling 2389 cognitively normal (CN), 1424 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 743 Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data set was used as training set for the constriction of disease models while a collection of multi-centric data cohorts was used as test set for validation. Cross-sectional information related to clinical, cognitive, imaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers was used. Event sequences obtained with EBM and DEBM showed differences in the ordering of single biomarkers but according to both the first biomarkers to become abnormal were those related to CSF, followed by cognitive scores, while structural imaging showed significant volumetric decreases at later stages of the disease progression. Staging of test set subjects based on sequences obtained with both models showed good linear correlat

Localization of the Epileptogenic Zone Using Interictal MEG and Machine Learning in a Large Cohort of Drug-Resistant Epilepsy Patients

Objective: Epilepsy surgery results in seizure freedom in the majority of drug-resistant patients. To improve surgery outcome we studied whether MEG metrics combined with machine learning can improve localization of the epileptogenic zone, thereby enhancing the chance of seizure freedom.Methods: Presurgical interictal MEG recordings of 94 patients (64 seizure-free >1y post-surgery) were analyzed to extract four metrics in source space: delta power, low-to-high-frequency power ratio, functional connectivity (phase lag index), and minimum spanning tree betweenness centrality. At the group level, we estimated the overlap of the resection area with the five highest values for each metric and determined whether this overlap differed between surgery outcomes. At the individual level, those metrics were used in machine learning classifiers (linear support vector machine (SVM) and random forest) to distinguish between resection and non-resection areas and between surgery outcome groups.Results: The highest values, for all metrics, overlapped with the resection area in more than half of the patients, but the overlap did not differ between surgery outcome groups. The classifiers distinguished the resection areas from non-resection areas with 59.94% accuracy (95% confidence interval: 59.67–60.22%) for SVM and 60.34% (59.98–60.71%) for random forest, but could not differentiate seizure-free from not seizure-free patients [43.77% accuracy (42.08–45.45%) for SVM and 49.03% (47.25–50.82%) for random forest].Significance: All four metrics localized the resection area but did not distinguish between surgery outcome groups, demonstrating that metrics derived from interictal MEG correspond to expert consensus based on several presurgical evaluation modalities, but do not yet localize the epileptogenic zone. Metrics should be improved such that they correspond to the resection area in seizure-free patients but not in patients with persistent seizures. It is important to test such localization strategies at an individual level, for example by using machine learning or individualized models, since surgery is individually tailored

Image quality transfer and applications in diffusion MRI

This paper introduces a new computational imaging technique called image quality transfer (IQT). IQT uses machine learning to transfer the rich information available from one-off experimental medical imaging devices to the abundant but lower-quality data from routine acquisitions. The procedure uses matched pairs to learn mappings from low-quality to corresponding high-quality images. Once learned, these mappings then augment unseen low quality images, for example by enhancing image resolution or information content. Here, we demonstrate IQT using a simple patch-regression implementation and the uniquely rich diffusion MRI data set from the human connectome project (HCP). Results highlight potential benefits of IQT in both brain connectivity mapping and microstructure imaging. In brain connectivity mapping, IQT reveals, from standard data sets, thin connection pathways that tractography normally requires specialised data to reconstruct. In microstructure imaging, IQT shows potential in estimating, from standard “single-shell” data (one non-zero b-value), maps of microstructural parameters that normally require specialised multi-shell data. Further experiments show strong generalisability, highlighting IQT's benefits even when the training set does not directly represent the application domain. The concept extends naturally to many other imaging modalities and reconstruction problems

The Open-Access European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia (EPAD) MRI dataset and processing workflow

The European Prevention of Alzheimer Dementia (EPAD) is a multi-center study that aims to characterize the preclinical and prodromal stages of Alzheimer's Disease. The EPAD imaging dataset includes core (3D T1w, 3D FLAIR) and advanced (ASL, diffusion MRI, and resting-state fMRI) MRI sequences. Here, we give an overview of the semi-automatic multimodal and multisite pipeline that we developed to curate, preprocess, quality control (QC), and compute image-derived phenotypes (IDPs) from the EPAD MRI dataset. This pipeline harmonizes DICOM data structure across sites and performs standardized MRI preprocessing steps. A semi-automated MRI QC procedure was implemented to visualize and flag MRI images next to site-specific distributions of QC features - i.e. metrics that represent image quality. The value of each of these QC features was evaluated through comparison with visual assessment and step-wise parameter selection based on logistic regression. IDPs were computed from 5 different MRI modalities and their sanity and potential clinical relevance were ascertained by assessing their relationship with biological markers of aging and dementia. The EPAD v1500.0 data release encompassed core structural scans from 1356 participants 842 fMRI, 831 dMRI, and 858 ASL scans. From 1356 3D T1w images, we identified 17 images with poor quality and 61 with moderate quality. Five QC features - Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR), Contrast to Noise Ratio (CNR), Coefficient of Joint Variation (CJV), Foreground-Background energy Ratio (FBER), and Image Quality Rate (IQR) - were selected as the most informative on image quality by comparison with visual assessment. The multimodal IDPs showed greater impairment in associations with age and dementia biomarkers, demonstrating the potential of the dataset for future clinical analyses

The sequence of structural, functional and cognitive changes in multiple sclerosis

Background: As disease progression remains poorly understood in multiple sclerosis (MS), we aim to investigate the sequence in which different disease milestones occur using a novel data-driven approach. Methods: We analysed a cohort of 295 relapse-onset MS patients and 96 healthy controls, and considered 28 features, capturing information on T2-lesion load, regional brain and spinal cord volumes, resting-state functional centrality (“hubness”), microstructural tissue integrity of major white matter (WM) tracts and performance on multiple cognitive tests. We used a discriminative event-based model to estimate the sequence of biomarker abnormality in MS progression in general, as well as specific models for worsening physical disability and cognitive impairment. Results: We demonstrated that grey matter (GM) atrophy of the cerebellum, thalamus, and changes in corticospinal tracts are early events in MS pathology, whereas other WM tracts as well as the cognitive domains of working memory, attention, and executive function are consistently late events. The models for disability and cognition show early functional changes of the default-mode network and earlier changes in spinal cord volume compared to the general MS population. Overall, GM atrophy seems crucial due to its early involvement in the disease course, whereas WM tract integrity appears to be affected relatively late despite the early onset of WM lesions. Conclusion: Data-driven modelling revealed the relative occurrence of both imaging and non-imaging events as MS progresses, providing insights into disease propagation mechanisms, and allowing fine-grained staging of patients for monitoring purpose